Muscat: Fitch Ratings has raised its assumptions for oil prices for the period from 2024-2025 based on the expectation that geopolitical issues in the world will extend for a while, and will not be resolved soon.
In a report released on March 14, 2023, Fitch estimates Brent crude at $75 per barrel in 2024 (the old assumption was $65) and $65 in 2025 (the old assumption was $53 per barrel).
It said that: “Our assumptions of an increase in oil prices in the period from 2024-2025 reflect our view that it will take longer for prices to moderate, due to the tightening of supply from Russia and the cautious approach of OPEC + in increasing supply.”
It added that the oil market is currently broadly balanced, despite China's gradual reopening, which could lead to an increase in demand.
Fitch also lowered its 2023 assumptions for European gas prices and US gas prices for the period 2023-2024, reflecting lower demand in Europe, mainly due to sharply declining demand, ample LNG supplies, and above-average gas storage levels.